Global and domestic brokerages have laid out their target levels for December 2026. While the “Base Case” is the most likely scenario, the “Bull Case” shows the explosive potential if everything goes right.
| Brokerage | Base Case Target | Bull Case Target | Potential Upside |
| Morgan Stanley | 95,000 (Sensex) | 1,07,000 (Sensex) | ~26% (Bull Case) |
| Kotak Securities | 29,120 (Nifty) | 32,032 (Nifty) | ~23.5% (Bull Case) |
| Nomura | 29,300 (Nifty) | — | ~13% |
| Goldman Sachs | 29,000 (Nifty) | — | ~12% |
| Emkay Global | 29,000 (Nifty) | — | ~12% |
| Axis Securities | 28,100 (Nifty) | 29,500 (Nifty) | ~8% – 14% |
Sectoral Playbook for 2026
Where should you put your money? Brokerages have identified clear “Themes” for the next year.
| Stance | Sectors | Rationale |
| 🚀 Overweight | Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Healthcare | Emkay cites GST-led price cuts and urban demand recovery as huge catalysts. L&T and Defence stocks remain top picks. |
| ⚖️ Neutral | Auto, Materials | Seen as steady but dependent on interest rate cuts from the RBI. |
| 📉 Underweight | Financials (Large Banks), Staples, IT | Large banks face competition from PSU banks and NBFCs. IT is expected to recover only by late 2026. |
⚠️ The Bear Case (What could go wrong?)
It’s not all sunshine. Morgan Stanley warns that in a Bear Case, the Sensex could fall to 76,000 (a 10% drop).
- The Triggers: Prolonged India-US trade friction, a delay in RBI rate cuts, or a significant slowdown in corporate earnings.
🎯 Final Verdict
The consensus is clear: 2026 is expected to be a year of “Earnings Recovery.” With foreign investors ready to return and domestic liquidity at an all-time high, the foundation is set for a multi-year rebound.
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